🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates PAU at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.

Ajaccio — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ajaccio's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.10 PPG versus Ajaccio's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAU, 2 for Ajaccio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

PAU trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Ajaccio trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Ajaccio 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Ajaccio 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.47 xG and Ajaccio 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.043 / defence 0.894 | Ajaccio attack 0.664 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.998. Data: 53 PAU games / 53 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAU 59% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 15%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Ajaccio 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PAU (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Ajaccio's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Ajaccio 20% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights