Guingamp 2-4 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Toulouse make the trip to Stade du Roudourou to face Guingamp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Toulouse have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Toulouse have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Toulouse are 0.90 PPG clear of Guingamp in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Guingamp have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Toulouse in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guingamp lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 58% versus Toulouse 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 39% | Toulouse 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.25 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.067 / defence 1.214 | Toulouse attack 1.142 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 0.984 / away 0.946. Data: 31 Guingamp games / 31 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Toulouse 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 80% | Toulouse 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Guingamp 1.25 / Toulouse 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.067 / def 1.214 | Toulouse attack 1.142 / def 1.187 | league avg home 0.984 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Toulouse xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Toulouse kick off?
Guingamp vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Toulouse?
Guingamp 2 - 4 Toulouse.
Where is Guingamp vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Toulouse part of?
Guingamp vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 34% chance of winning, Toulouse a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Guingamp and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Toulouse in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Toulouse (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (1.14x) against Guingamp's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.44
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.56
1.31
Toulouse xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.31 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 10W 12D 9L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 19W 9D 3L from 31 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Toulouse are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guingamp.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 8W 5D 2L from 15 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.29 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 10W 12D 9L in their last 31 games (1.35 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 19W 9D 3L in their last 31 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.60 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Toulouse in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guingamp
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Guingamp 2-4 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Guingamp, 53% for Toulouse — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Guingamp) and 53% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Guingamp's games and 53% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Guingamp's recent games and 53% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Toulouse tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Guingamp 2-4 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.25 xG and Toulouse 1.31 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against Toulouse attack 1.14 / defence 1.19, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 34% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 39%, Toulouse 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.