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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Bastia 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Paris FC beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 2.02 xG and Bastia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.98 against Bastia attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Paris FC 64% | Draw 21% | Bastia 16%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 50%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Paris FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bastia's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.78 PPG, Bastia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights