Paris FC 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Bastia at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Charléty, Paris FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bastia away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Paris FC are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Paris FC have won 3, Bastia 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 7 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Bastia trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 50% versus Bastia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 50% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 2.02 xG and Bastia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.329 / defence 0.982 | Bastia attack 0.810 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.108. Paris FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 Paris FC games / 68 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 64% | Draw 21% | Bastia 16%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Bastia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Paris FC (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Paris FC 60% | Bastia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 64% | Draw 21% | Bastia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Paris FC 2.02 / Bastia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.329 / def 0.982 | Bastia attack 0.810 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bastia xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Bastia kick off?
Paris FC vs Bastia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Paris FC vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Bastia part of?
Paris FC vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 64% chance of winning, Bastia a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Paris FC and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
Record (7 meetings): Paris FC 3W | Draws 1 | Bastia 3W.
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in?
Paris FC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.33) and Bastia's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.86
16%
6.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.90
0.88
Bastia xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
6.43
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
48.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.88 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Bastia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 68 games, going 35W 16D 17L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.40 PPG from 68 outings (24W 23D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.78 PPG, Bastia on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 21W 6D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.03 points per game from 33 outings (8W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.19 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Bastia in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 35W 16D 17L in their last 68 games (1.78 PPG), while Bastia have gone 24W 23D 21L in their last 68 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Bastia away?
Paris FC's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 2.09 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Paris FC
1
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 4, Bastia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Bastia?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 58%, Bastia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Paris FC) and 36% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Paris FC's recent matches and 48% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Paris FC's recent games and 36% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Bastia tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bastia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 2.02 xG and Bastia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Paris FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.98 against Bastia attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 64% | Draw 21% | Bastia 16%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 50%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.78 PPG, Bastia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.