Niort 1-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 40%, yet in-form Nimes provide a compelling counter-argument — this Niort vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Niort host Nimes at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2 (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 12 November 2022 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Niort — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Niort's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nimes stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Nimes have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nimes are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Niort's games and 80% of Nimes's (from Niort's last 10 home games and Nimes's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Niort have won 1, Nimes 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2022, ended Niort 0–0 Nimes — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Niort in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Nimes in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 38% versus Nimes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 44% | Nimes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.34 xG and Nimes 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.829 / defence 1.189 | Nimes attack 0.967 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.051. Nimes's defence rating of 1.375 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Niort's projected output up. Data: built from Niort's last 52 games and Nimes's last 52.
Result probabilities: Niort 40% | Draw 27% | Nimes 34%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.51 | Draw 3.76 | Nimes 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nimes (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Niort offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Niort 60% (last 10 home games) | Nimes 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 40% | Draw 27% | Nimes 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Niort 1.34 / Nimes 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.829 / def 1.189 | Nimes attack 0.967 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Niort (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Nimes xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Niort vs Nimes FAQs
What time does Niort vs Nimes kick off?
Niort vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Nimes?
Niort 1 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Niort vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Nimes part of?
Niort vs Nimes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 40% chance of winning, Nimes a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Niort and Nimes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Niort vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Niort's attack at 0.83x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Niort's last 52 games and Nimes's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.76
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Niort xG
Total xG
2.55
1.21
Nimes xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Niort vs Nimes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Niort and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Niort and 1.21 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Niort come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 12D 25L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Nimes sit at 1.21 PPG from 52 outings (18W 9D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Niort on 1.10 PPG, Nimes on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Niort's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across their last 26 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Nimes have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 26 away games (8W 4D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Niort are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Nimes
Blended
Niort (Home) vs Nimes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Niort
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Niort vs Nimes Form FAQs
What form are Niort and Nimes in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 15W 12D 25L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Nimes have gone 18W 9D 25L in their last 52 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Nimes away?
Niort's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.27 PPG; Nimes away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 28 January 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Niort's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Niort
2
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Niort vs Nimes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Nimes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Niort have won 1, Nimes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Nimes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2023: Nimes 3-2 Niort.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Niort see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 38%, Nimes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Niort) and 58% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 42% of games; Nimes in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Niort vs Nimes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Niort and Nimes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Niort's recent matches and 50% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Niort and Nimes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Niort's recent games and 58% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Nimes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Niort's recent matches and 73% of Nimes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort and Nimes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort and Nimes finished level at 1-1 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.34 xG and Nimes 1.21 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against Nimes attack 0.97 / defence 1.38, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 40% | Draw 27% | Nimes 34%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 44%, Nimes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Nimes's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.10 PPG, Nimes 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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