Niort 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade René Gaillard plays host to Niort versus Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Niort have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade René Gaillard — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Niort are significantly better at Stade René Gaillard than their overall form suggests.
Bastia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bastia's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Niort 0W, Bastia 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 30% versus Bastia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 33% | Bastia 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.92 xG and Bastia 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.855 / defence 0.879 | Bastia attack 0.865 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. Data: 33 Niort games / 33 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 36% | Draw 35% | Bastia 29%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Bastia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Bastia's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Niort as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.70 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Niort 30% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 36% | Draw 35% | Bastia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Niort 0.92 / Bastia 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.855 / def 0.879 | Bastia attack 0.865 / def 1.145 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Niort (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Bastia xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Bastia kick off?
Niort vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Bastia?
Niort 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Niort vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Bastia part of?
Niort vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 36% chance of winning, Bastia a 29% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Niort and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 0W | Draws 0 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Niort and Bastia in?
Niort (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Bastia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Niort's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.86x) against Niort's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
36%
2.79
35%
2.82
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Niort xG
Total xG
1.70
0.79
Bastia xG
2.79
36%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 14.4 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.9%.
How many goals are Niort and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Niort and 0.79 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Niort's recent record stands at 12W 8D 13L from 33 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 10L across 33 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Niort against 1.18 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Niort have managed 7W 4D 5L from 16 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 4W 3D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Niort come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Niort are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 0.97 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Bastia in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Bastia have gone 8W 15D 10L in their last 33 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Bastia away?
Niort's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.56 PPG; Bastia away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Niort or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Bastia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 1-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Niort
1
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Bastia?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 0, Bastia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Bastia 2-1 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Niort see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 25%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Niort and 44% for Bastia.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 44% of games; Bastia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Niort's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Niort's recent games and 44% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Bastia tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bastia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 34, as Niort and Bastia drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.92 xG and Bastia 0.79 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.85 / defence 0.88 against Bastia attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 36% | Draw 35% | Bastia 29%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 33%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.33 PPG, Bastia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.