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Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Montpellier 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Montpellier 0-1 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.77 xG and PAU 1.27 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against PAU attack 1.05 / defence 1.35, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Montpellier 49% | Draw 23% | PAU 27%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 45%, PAU 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Montpellier's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

PAU's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights