Poisson model rates Guingamp at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Guingamp welcome Sochaux to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
H2H Record
Sochaux have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Guingamp's 1 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Sochaux have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Table Context
Guingamp are 11th in Ligue 2 with 40 points from 34 games.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.37 xG and Sochaux 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Sochaux attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 0 Sochaux games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 30% | Sochaux 26%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sochaux 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Managers: Guingamp (S. Ripoll) | Sochaux (V. Hognon) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (10 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 4 | Sochaux 5W • Goals trend: 1.90 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Guingamp 7 – 12 Sochaux • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: Guingamp 10% / Draw 40% / Sochaux 50% • Historical edge: Sochaux dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Sochaux (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Guingamp as more likely (home 43% / draw 30% / away 26%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.90/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.39 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 49% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Guingamp (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Guingamp home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | CS 4
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 30% | Sochaux 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Guingamp 1.37 / Sochaux 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.870 / def 0.953 | Sochaux attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sochaux xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Sochaux kick off?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Sochaux part of?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 43% chance of winning, Sochaux a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Guingamp and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
• Record (10 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 4 | Sochaux 5W • Goals trend: 1.90 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Guingamp 7 – 12 Sochaux • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 40% | Win rates: Guingamp 10% / Draw 40% / Sochaux 50% • Historical edge: Sochaux dominant — 5W from 10 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Sochaux (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Guingamp as more likely (home 43% / draw 30% / away 26%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 1.90/game (40% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.39 (43% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 49% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Guingamp (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Guingamp home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | CS 4
What do the betting odds say about Guingamp vs Sochaux?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture