Annecy vs Nantes – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Annecy welcome Nantes to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 5W 3D 2L at Parc des Sports — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nantes — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Nantes have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Annecy are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Nantes in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 54% versus Nantes 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 54% | Nantes 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.93 xG and Nantes 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.108 / defence 0.816 | Nantes attack 1.063 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Nantes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Annecy games / 4 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 56% | Draw 25% | Nantes 20%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Nantes 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Nantes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 56% | Draw 25% | Nantes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Annecy 1.93 / Nantes 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.108 / def 0.816 | Nantes attack 1.063 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Annecy (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Nantes xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Nantes kick off?
Annecy vs Nantes is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Nantes part of?
Annecy vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 56% chance of winning, Nantes a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Annecy and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Nantes in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Nantes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.11x the league average against Nantes's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.04
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Annecy xG
Total xG
3.02
1.09
Nantes xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
3%
35.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Annecy and 1.09 for Nantes, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Nantes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy come into this having played 37 games, going 17W 8D 12L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.65 PPG from 37 outings (5W 9D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Annecy's home form reads 8W 7D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.63 points per game from 19 outings (2W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.95 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Nantes in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 8D 12L in their last 37 games (1.59 PPG), while Nantes have gone 5W 9D 23L in their last 37 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Nantes away?
Annecy's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.63 PPG; Nantes away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Annecy or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Nantes in 19%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 63%, Nantes 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Annecy) and 53% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Nantes in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Annecy's games and 47% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Annecy's recent games and 53% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Nantes tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Nantes in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.