📋

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Boulogne welcome Guingamp to . Kick-off is set for Friday 14 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Boulogne — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Boulogne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 3W 2D 5L at — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Boulogne at 1.00 PPG versus Guingamp's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Boulogne register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Guingamp in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Boulogne, 1 for Guingamp and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 0–3 with Guingamp winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Table Context

The standings have Guingamp (11th, 40 pts) 4 places above Boulogne (15th, 36 pts) — a 4-point gap in Ligue 2.

At home this season, Boulogne have gone 4W 3D 10L. Guingamp have gone 4W 5D 8L on their travels.

Trading Patterns

Boulogne in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 50% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 47% | Guingamp 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.37 xG and Guingamp 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.951 / defence 1.180 | Guingamp attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Boulogne games / 34 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Boulogne 35% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 37%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 60% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights