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Poisson model favours RED Star FC 93 (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guingamp face RED Star FC 93.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Guingamp and RED Star FC 93 meet at Stade de Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

RED Star FC 93 (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RED Star FC 93 haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

RED Star FC 93 away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, RED Star FC 93 are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

RED Star FC 93 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. RED Star FC 93 have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 5.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Where They Stand

The standings have RED Star FC 93 (4th, 58 pts) 7 places above Guingamp (11th, 40 pts) — a 18-point gap in Ligue 2.

On home turf, Guingamp's Ligue 2 record reads 6W 5D 6L this term. RED Star FC 93 have gone 9W 3D 5L on their travels. RED Star FC 93: Promotion Playoffs.

Trading & In-Play

Guingamp — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus RED Star FC 93 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | RED Star FC 93 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.16 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.057 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 33 RED Star FC 93 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 32% | Draw 31% | RED Star FC 93 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | RED Star FC 93 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 30% | RED Star FC 93 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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