Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Clermont Foot take on RED Star FC 93.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Clermont Foot host RED Star FC 93 at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel Montpied: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. RED Star FC 93 have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RED Star FC 93's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Clermont Foot 1.20 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Clermont Foot, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 59% versus RED Star FC 93 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 44% | RED Star FC 93 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.83 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.771 / defence 0.760 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.984 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.274. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Clermont Foot games / 38 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 27% | Draw 39% | RED Star FC 93 34%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | RED Star FC 93 2.94. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 50% | RED Star FC 93 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 27% | Draw 39% | RED Star FC 93 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 38% | xG Clermont Foot 0.83 / RED Star FC 93 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.771 / def 0.760 | RED Star FC 93 attack 0.984 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.95
RED Star FC 93 xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
Where is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 27% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 34% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
Record (4 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 3 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against RED Star FC 93's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.70
39%
2.56
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.78
0.95
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.70
27%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 16.1 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.95 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 9W 14D 16L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 17W 12D 10L from 39 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, RED Star FC 93 are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 10W 4D 5L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.33 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
RED Star FC 93
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 9W 14D 16L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 17W 12D 10L in their last 39 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.21 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Clermont Foot
3
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 0, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-1 RED Star FC 93.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 63%, RED Star FC 93 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Clermont Foot) and 47% (RED Star FC 93).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 42%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 42% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 47% of RED Star FC 93's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.