Annecy vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Dijon travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dijon — All Games: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Annecy, 0 for Dijon and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Dijon trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Annecy 50% and Dijon 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 25% | Dijon 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.49 xG and Dijon 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.108 / defence 0.816 | Dijon attack 0.882 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Annecy games / 4 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 30% | Dijon 21%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Dijon 4.76. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 70% | Dijon 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 49% | Draw 30% | Dijon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Annecy 1.49 / Dijon 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.108 / def 0.816 | Dijon attack 0.882 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Annecy (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Dijon xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Dijon kick off?
Annecy vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Dijon part of?
Annecy vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 49% chance of winning, Dijon a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dijon?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Annecy and Dijon in?
Annecy (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (1.11) and Dijon's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.38
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.39
0.90
Dijon xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
5%
20.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Annecy and 0.90 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dijon's form line: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon in 75%.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Dijon in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
Have Annecy or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Dijon in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Dijon runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
1
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Dijon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Annecy 1-1 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Dijon?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 50%, Dijon 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Annecy and 25% for Dijon.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Annecy's games and 75% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Annecy's recent games and 25% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Dijon tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dijon in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.