Poisson model rates Reims at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 16 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reims haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Reims have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stade Auguste-Delaune — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Dijon have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Reims's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2021, ended 1–0 with Reims winning.
It is worth noting that Dijon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Where They Stand
Reims are 6th in Ligue 2 with 56 points from 34 games.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.74 xG and Dijon 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.107 / defence 0.983 | Dijon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Reims games / 0 Dijon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Reims 52% | Draw 26% | Dijon 21%. Fair-value odds: Reims 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Dijon 4.76. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Managers: Reims (K. Geraerts) | Dijon (B. Ridira) • Squad availability: no confirmed absences reported for either side • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 3 | Dijon 4W • Goals trend: 2.12 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Reims 7 – 10 Dijon • H2H markets: BTTS 62% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Reims 12% / Draw 38% / Dijon 50% • Historical edge: Dijon dominant — 4W from 8 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Dijon (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Reims as more likely (home 52% / draw 26% / away 21%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.12/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.79 (53% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 62%, Poisson probability 55% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Reims (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W • Reims home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 5
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 52% | Draw 26% | Dijon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Reims 1.74 / Dijon 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.107 / def 0.983 | Dijon attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Reims (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dijon xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Dijon kick off?
Reims vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Where is Reims vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Dijon part of?
Reims vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 52% chance of winning, Dijon a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Reims and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Dijon?
• Record (8 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 3 | Dijon 4W • Goals trend: 2.12 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Reims 7 – 10 Dijon • H2H markets: BTTS 62% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Reims 12% / Draw 38% / Dijon 50% • Historical edge: Dijon dominant — 4W from 8 meetings (50% win rate) • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours Dijon (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates Reims as more likely (home 52% / draw 26% / away 21%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.12/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.79 (53% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 62%, Poisson probability 55% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Reims and Dijon in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • Reims (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-W • Reims home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | CS 5
What do the betting odds say about Reims vs Dijon?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture