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Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Montpellier 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Montpellier 1-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.47 xG and Montpellier 1.39 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.10 / defence 1.44 against Montpellier attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 39% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 36%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 63%, Montpellier 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Montpellier's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Montpellier (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights