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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Montpellier fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade de Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Montpellier in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 15 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Montpellier have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Montpellier have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Montpellier's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form favours the hosts. Guingamp's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Trading Data

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 55% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 53% versus Montpellier 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 63% | Montpellier 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.47 xG and Montpellier 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.101 / defence 1.442 | Montpellier attack 0.878 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.097. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 4 Montpellier games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 25% | Montpellier 36%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Montpellier 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 50% | Montpellier 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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