Guingamp 2-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Le Havre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 38 as Guingamp welcome Le Havre to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Le Havre — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Le Havre away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Le Havre and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Le Havre trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 62% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 49% | Le Havre 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.46 xG and Le Havre 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.270 / defence 1.218 | Le Havre attack 0.892 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.097. Guingamp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.270 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Guingamp games / 37 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 30%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 70% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Guingamp 1.46 / Le Havre 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.270 / def 1.218 | Le Havre attack 0.892 / def 1.216 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Le Havre xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Le Havre kick off?
Guingamp vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Guingamp 2 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Guingamp vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Le Havre part of?
Guingamp vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 43% chance of winning, Le Havre a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Guingamp and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Le Havre in?
Guingamp (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.27) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.75
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.65
1.19
Le Havre xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.19 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 14W 13D 10L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Le Havre's form line: 13W 11D 13L from 37 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.49 PPG, Le Havre on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 7W 6D 5L from 18 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.00 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Le Havre in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 14W 13D 10L in their last 37 games (1.49 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 13W 11D 13L in their last 37 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Le Havre away?
Guingamp's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.67 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Le Havre in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Le Havre runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
2
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Le Havre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Le Havre 0-0 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 78%, Le Havre 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Guingamp) and 39% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre in 44%; Le Havre in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Le Havre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Guingamp's games and 39% of Le Havre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Guingamp's recent games and 39% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Le Havre tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Le Havre 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Le Havre 2-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.46 xG and Le Havre 1.19 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.27 / defence 1.22 against Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 1.22, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 43% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 30%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 49%, Le Havre 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Le Havre's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.49 PPG, Le Havre 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.