Auxerre 2-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Auxerre at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Amiens travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Auxerre have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Auxerre are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Auxerre register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Amiens in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Amiens and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Amiens trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 60% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Amiens 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.33 xG and Amiens 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.116 / defence 1.103 | Amiens attack 0.748 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.097. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Auxerre games / 37 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 46% | Draw 29% | Amiens 25%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Amiens 4.00. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Auxerre are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 70% | Amiens 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 46% | Draw 29% | Amiens 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Auxerre 1.33 / Amiens 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.116 / def 1.103 | Amiens attack 0.748 / def 1.262 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Amiens xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Amiens kick off?
Auxerre vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Amiens?
Auxerre 2 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Auxerre vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Amiens part of?
Auxerre vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 46% chance of winning, Amiens a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Auxerre and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 0 | Amiens 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Amiens in?
Auxerre (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Amiens (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.12x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
46%
2.17
29%
3.46
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.24
0.91
Amiens xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Auxerre and 0.91 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 20W 11D 6L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 9W 17D 11L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Auxerre are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Amiens.
Venue Form
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 2W 11D 5L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.14 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Amiens in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Amiens in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 20W 11D 6L in their last 37 games (1.92 PPG), while Amiens have gone 9W 17D 11L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Amiens away?
Auxerre's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.89 PPG; Amiens away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Amiens in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
1
Draws
1
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Amiens have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Amiens 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Amiens?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 56%, Amiens 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Auxerre) and 22% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Amiens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Auxerre's games and 56% of Amiens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Auxerre's recent games and 22% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Amiens tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Amiens in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Amiens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.33 xG and Amiens 0.91 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Amiens attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 46% | Draw 29% | Amiens 25%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.