Niort 1-2 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Niort at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade René Gaillard plays host to Niort versus Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Niort have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade René Gaillard, Niort have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade René Gaillard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Valenciennes away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Niort, 1.00 for Valenciennes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Niort 0W, Valenciennes 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Niort — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Valenciennes — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 35% versus Valenciennes 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Niort 35% | Valenciennes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.01 xG and Valenciennes 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.861 / defence 1.061 | Valenciennes attack 0.683 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.097. Valenciennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Niort's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Niort games / 37 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 39% | Draw 33% | Valenciennes 27%. Fair-value odds: Niort 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Valenciennes 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Niort at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Niort if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Niort 30% | Valenciennes 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 39% | Draw 33% | Valenciennes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Niort 1.01 / Valenciennes 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.861 / def 1.061 | Valenciennes attack 0.683 / def 1.243 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Niort (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Niort xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Valenciennes xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Valenciennes kick off?
Niort vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Valenciennes?
Niort 1 - 2 Valenciennes.
Where is Niort vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Valenciennes part of?
Niort vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 39% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Niort the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Niort and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Valenciennes?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 0W | Draws 1 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Niort and Valenciennes in?
Niort (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Valenciennes (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Niort's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.68x) against Niort's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Niort Win
39%
2.55
33%
2.99
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Niort xG
Total xG
1.81
0.80
Valenciennes xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Niort and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Niort and 0.80 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Niort come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 10D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.11 PPG from 37 outings (9W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Niort against 1.11 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Niort's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (4W 9D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Niort are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.86 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Current Season
Valenciennes
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 9W 14D 14L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Valenciennes away?
Niort's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.44 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Niort or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Niort have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Niort
2
Draws
2
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Niort have won 0, Valenciennes have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Valenciennes 0-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Valenciennes?
Valenciennes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Niort see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 33%, Valenciennes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Niort and 28% for Valenciennes.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Niort have failed to score in 39% of games; Valenciennes in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Niort's recent matches and 50% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Niort's recent games and 28% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valenciennes defy the odds to beat Niort 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes beat Niort 1-2 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.01 xG and Valenciennes 0.80 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Valenciennes outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against Valenciennes attack 0.68 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 39% | Draw 33% | Valenciennes 27%, with Niort to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Valenciennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 35%, Valenciennes 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Valenciennes's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.24 PPG, Valenciennes 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valenciennes win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valenciennes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.