Annecy 1-4 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 38%, yet in-form Guingamp provide a compelling counter-argument — this Annecy vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Annecy (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Annecy's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Annecy are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Guingamp have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Guingamp are 0.50 PPG clear of Annecy over their recent games (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Annecy edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Annecy 1–1 Guingamp — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 40% versus Guingamp 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 45% | Guingamp 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Annecy surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Guingamp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.18 xG and Guingamp 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.928 / defence 0.935 | Guingamp attack 1.031 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.143. Data: built from Annecy's last 38 games and Guingamp's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Annecy 38% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.66 | Draw 3.51 | Guingamp 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Guingamp (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Annecy's last 10 home games and Guingamp's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 30% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Annecy 38 games, Guingamp 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 1 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 38% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Annecy 1.18 / Guingamp 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.928 / def 0.935 | Guingamp attack 1.031 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Annecy (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Guingamp xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Guingamp FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Guingamp kick off?
Annecy vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Guingamp?
Annecy 1 - 4 Guingamp.
Where is Annecy vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Guingamp part of?
Annecy vs Guingamp is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 1) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 38% chance of winning, Guingamp a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Guingamp will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Annecy vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.93) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.03x) against Annecy's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 38 games and Guingamp's last 38, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
38%
2.66
29%
3.51
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.28
1.10
Guingamp xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Guingamp Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Annecy and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Annecy and 1.10 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 12D 15L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Guingamp's form line: 15W 10D 13L from 38 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Annecy against 1.45 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 19 home games (9W 4D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Annecy are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guingamp have gone 8W 6D 5L from their last 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.34 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Pre-Season
Guingamp
Pre-Season
Annecy (Home) vs Guingamp (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Pre-Season
Guingamp
Pre-Season
❓ Annecy vs Guingamp Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Guingamp away?
Annecy's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.63 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Annecy or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Guingamp in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won Guingamp 0-4 Annecy on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Guingamp H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Guingamp?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 4, Guingamp have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Guingamp last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Guingamp 2-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Guingamp?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 32%, Guingamp 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Annecy and 37% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Guingamp in 32%; Annecy have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Guingamp Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Guingamp matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Annecy's recent matches and 58% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Guingamp matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Annecy's recent games and 37% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Guingamp matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Annecy's recent matches and 74% of Guingamp's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Annecy 1-4 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.18 xG and Guingamp 1.10 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.10 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Guingamp attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 38% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 34%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 45%, Guingamp 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.18 PPG, Guingamp 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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