Guingamp vs Dijon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Guingamp welcome Dijon to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dijon stand at 0W 2D 2L from 4 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dijon have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Guingamp) versus 0.50 (Dijon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Guingamp, 0 for Dijon and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Dijon trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 50% and Dijon 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 50% | Dijon 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.47 xG and Dijon 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | Dijon attack 0.882 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 4 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 29% | Dijon 29%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Dijon 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 30% | Dijon 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 29% | Dijon 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Guingamp 1.47 / Dijon 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.097 / def 1.075 | Dijon attack 0.882 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dijon xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dijon kick off?
Guingamp vs Dijon is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dijon part of?
Guingamp vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 42% chance of winning, Dijon a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Guingamp and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dijon?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 2 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Dijon in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Dijon (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.10x the league average against Dijon's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
42%
2.37
29%
3.45
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.66
1.19
Dijon xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.19 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dijon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Dijon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dijon in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Dijon have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Guingamp 2-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dijon?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 50%, Dijon 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guingamp) and 25% (Dijon).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Guingamp's games and 75% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guingamp's recent games and 25% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Dijon tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dijon in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.