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Poisson rates Guingamp at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Dijon encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 15 as Guingamp welcome Dijon to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Guingamp — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Guingamp have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Dijon have managed just 2 wins.

The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Guingamp winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Guingamp and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Table Context

Guingamp are 11th in Ligue 2 with 40 points from 34 games.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.37 xG and Dijon 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Dijon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 0 Dijon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 30% | Dijon 26%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Dijon 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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