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Poisson model favours Rodez (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Boulogne face Rodez.

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Analysis

Rodez make the trip to to face Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 11 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Boulogne (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Boulogne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Boulogne at this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Rodez have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rodez are 1.20 PPG clear of Boulogne in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Boulogne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rodez in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, Rodez have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Boulogne's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rodez have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Where They Stand

The standings have Rodez (5th, 58 pts) 10 places above Boulogne (15th, 36 pts) — a 22-point gap in Ligue 2.

Boulogne's home record this season stands at 4W 3D 10L. Away from home, Rodez have posted 7W 6D 4L in Ligue 2 this season. Rodez: Promotion Playoffs.

Trading Data

Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Boulogne 50% and Rodez 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 47% | Rodez 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.19 xG and Rodez 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.951 / defence 1.180 | Rodez attack 1.027 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Boulogne games / 34 Rodez games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Boulogne 28% | Draw 28% | Rodez 44%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Rodez 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 60% | Rodez 70% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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