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Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bastia beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.15 xG and Bastia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Bastia attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guingamp 34% | Draw 33% | Bastia 33%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 62%, Bastia 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guingamp's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Bastia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.37 PPG, Bastia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights