Guingamp 2-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Auxerre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.

Form

Guingamp (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade du Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Auxerre have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Auxerre have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Auxerre are 0.50 PPG clear of Guingamp in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Guingamp lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Auxerre 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 48% | Auxerre 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.49 xG and Auxerre 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.170 / defence 0.960 | Auxerre attack 1.377 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.125. Auxerre have an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Guingamp games / 12 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 38% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Auxerre 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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