Sochaux 2-3 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sochaux (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sochaux face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sochaux and PAU meet at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Sochaux (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sochaux's home record at Stade Auguste-Bonal: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, PAU have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Sochaux's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of PAU's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Sochaux have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with PAU managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Sochaux winning.
The historical record gives Sochaux a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sochaux — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
PAU — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 48% versus PAU 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 44% | PAU 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.43 xG and PAU 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.274 / defence 0.865 | PAU attack 0.796 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.046. Sochaux carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 68 Sochaux games / 68 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 54% | Draw 27% | PAU 19%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | PAU 5.26. Sochaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 60% | PAU 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 54% | Draw 27% | PAU 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Sochaux 1.43 / PAU 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.274 / def 0.865 | PAU attack 0.796 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.72
PAU xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs PAU kick off?
Sochaux vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs PAU?
Sochaux 2 - 3 PAU.
Where is Sochaux vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs PAU part of?
Sochaux vs PAU is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 54% chance of winning, PAU a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sochaux and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Sochaux 3W | Draws 0 | PAU 0W.
What form are Sochaux and PAU in?
Sochaux (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (1.27) and PAU's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.80x) against Sochaux's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.67
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.15
0.72
PAU xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
26%
3.81
5%
22.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sochaux and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.72 for PAU, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sochaux come into this having played 68 games, going 34W 19D 15L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.22 PPG from 68 outings (22W 17D 29L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Sochaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of PAU — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sochaux's home form reads 19W 10D 4L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.00 points per game from 33 outings (8W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.94 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and PAU in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 34W 19D 15L in their last 68 games (1.78 PPG), while PAU have gone 22W 17D 29L in their last 68 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or PAU away?
Sochaux's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 2.03 PPG; PAU away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sochaux or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, PAU in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sochaux won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sochaux
0
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 3, PAU have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Sochaux 2-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and PAU?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 48%, PAU 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Sochaux) and 36% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; PAU in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sochaux's recent matches and 48% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Sochaux's recent games and 36% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and PAU tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, PAU in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Sochaux 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Sochaux 2-3 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.43 xG and PAU 0.72 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PAU outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.27 / defence 0.86 against PAU attack 0.80 / defence 0.89, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 54% | Draw 27% | PAU 19%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a PAU win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 44%, PAU 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with PAU winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sochaux (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.