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Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out PAU 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat PAU 4-3 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.45 xG and PAU 1.26 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.17 / defence 0.95 against PAU attack 1.12 / defence 1.08, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 26% | PAU 33%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 47%, PAU 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estac Troyes's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

PAU's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.51 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights