Toulouse 2-2 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Toulouse take on Ajaccio.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 24 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 0.71 xG and Ajaccio 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Ajaccio attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Toulouse games / 0 Ajaccio games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 21% | Draw 41% | Ajaccio 38%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Ajaccio 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.71 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 21% | Draw 41% | Ajaccio 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Toulouse 0.71 / Ajaccio 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Ajaccio attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ajaccio xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Ajaccio kick off?
Toulouse vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Ajaccio?
Toulouse 2 - 2 Ajaccio.
Where is Toulouse vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Ajaccio part of?
Toulouse vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 21% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Toulouse and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Ajaccio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Ajaccio in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.85) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.85x) against Toulouse's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Toulouse xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Ajaccio xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.00 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Pre-Season
Ajaccio
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Toulouse
2
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Ajaccio?
From 4 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Ajaccio have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Ajaccio 0-0 Toulouse.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Toulouse and Ajaccio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Ajaccio finished level at 2-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 0.71 xG and Ajaccio 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ajaccio outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Ajaccio attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 21% | Draw 41% | Ajaccio 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.