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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat PAU 3-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.80 xG and PAU 1.17 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dunkerque beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.21 / defence 0.96 against PAU attack 1.03 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 52% | Draw 23% | PAU 25%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, PAU 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dunkerque's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

PAU's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.71 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights