🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Dunkerque (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dunkerque face PAU.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees PAU travel to Stade Marcel Tribut to take on Dunkerque. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 January 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

PAU — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.

PAU's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Dunkerque are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Dunkerque have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while PAU have managed just 0 wins.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 3–0 with Dunkerque winning.

The historical record gives Dunkerque a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Dunkerque in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

PAU in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 50% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 44% | PAU 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.80 xG and PAU 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.206 / defence 0.964 | PAU attack 1.026 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.181. Data: 52 Dunkerque games / 52 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dunkerque 52% | Draw 23% | PAU 25%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | PAU 4.00. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 50% | PAU 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights