Dijon 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dijon at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gaston-Gérard plays host to Dijon versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dijon haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dijon at Stade Gaston-Gérard this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Saint Etienne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Saint Etienne's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Dijon's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 53% and Saint Etienne 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 53% | Saint Etienne 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.51 xG and Saint Etienne 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.027 / defence 1.116 | Saint Etienne attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.083. Data: 38 Dijon games / 0 Saint Etienne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dijon 48% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 26%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Saint Etienne 3.85. Dijon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dijon at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 40% | Saint Etienne 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 48% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Dijon 1.51 / Saint Etienne 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.027 / def 1.116 | Saint Etienne attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Dijon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Saint Etienne xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Dijon vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Dijon 2 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Dijon vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Saint Etienne part of?
Dijon vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 48% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dijon and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Saint Etienne in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dijon's attack at 1.03x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.85x) against Dijon's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.86
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.54
1.03
Saint Etienne xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
6%
17.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dijon and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Dijon and 1.03 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dijon come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 8D 17L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. Dijon haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 0.84 PPG from 38 outings (7W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. Saint Etienne haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Dijon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dijon's home form reads 8W 3D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (3W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dijon are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.08 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Pre-Season
Saint Etienne
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 7W 11D 20L in their last 38 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Saint Etienne away?
Dijon's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.42 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dijon
0
Draws
1
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Saint Etienne 2-0 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dijon see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 47%, Saint Etienne 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Dijon) and 42% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Dijon keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Saint Etienne in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Dijon's recent matches and 58% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Dijon's recent games and 42% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dijon edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.51 xG and Saint Etienne 1.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Saint Etienne attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 48% | Draw 26% | Saint Etienne 26%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 53%, Saint Etienne 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dijon arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.84. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.