Quevilly 0-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Quevilly at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 30 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Quevilly haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Quevilly's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Robert Diochon this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rodez (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rodez haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Quevilly, 1.20 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Quevilly have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Rodez in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Quevilly, 1 for Rodez and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 40% versus Rodez 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 42% | Rodez 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.25 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.944 / defence 1.015 | Rodez attack 0.909 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.083. Data: 38 Quevilly games / 38 Rodez games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Quevilly 42% | Draw 28% | Rodez 29%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Rodez 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 30% | Rodez 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 42% | Draw 28% | Rodez 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Quevilly 1.25 / Rodez 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.944 / def 1.015 | Rodez attack 0.909 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rodez xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Rodez kick off?
Quevilly vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Rodez?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Quevilly vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Rodez part of?
Quevilly vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 42% chance of winning, Rodez a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Quevilly and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 0 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Quevilly and Rodez in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Quevilly (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.94x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.91x) against Quevilly's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.52
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.25
1.00
Rodez xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
8%
11.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.00 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 9D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. Quevilly haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (10W 13D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. Rodez haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Quevilly against 1.13 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 5W 7D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.84 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Pre-Season
Rodez
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Rodez in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Rodez have gone 10W 13D 15L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Rodez away?
Quevilly's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.16 PPG; Rodez away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Rodez in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Rodez 3-3 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 42%, Rodez 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Quevilly and 32% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rodez in 32%; Quevilly have failed to score in 42% of games; Rodez in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Quevilly's recent matches and 32% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Quevilly's recent games and 32% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Rodez tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rodez in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 1, as Quevilly and Rodez drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.25 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Quevilly fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Rodez attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 42% | Draw 28% | Rodez 29%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 42%, Rodez 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.11 PPG, Rodez 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.