Saint Etienne 1-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Saint Etienne welcome Nimes to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nimes stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nimes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Nimes have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Saint Etienne) versus 1.00 (Nimes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Nimes in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 69% versus Nimes 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Nimes 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.98 xG and Nimes 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | Nimes attack 1.025 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.985. Data: 1 Saint Etienne games / 39 Nimes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 33% | Nimes 38%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Nimes 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nimes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 90% | Nimes 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 33% | Nimes 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Saint Etienne 0.98 / Nimes 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | Nimes attack 1.025 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Nimes (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Nimes xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nimes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nimes kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nimes?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nimes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 29% chance of winning, Nimes a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nimes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Nimes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Nimes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Nimes's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
29%
3.43
33%
3.06
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.14
1.16
Nimes xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.16 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 7W 11D 21L from 39 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nimes, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 18L across 39 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nimes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nimes by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 4W 6D 9L from 19 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nimes's away record stands at 8W 3D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nimes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.13 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Nimes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Nimes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 7W 11D 21L in their last 39 games (0.82 PPG), while Nimes have gone 14W 7D 18L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Nimes away?
Nimes's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.95 PPG; Nimes away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Nimes runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
0
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nimes?
From 2 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Nimes have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2023, when Nimes 1-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Nimes?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 79%, Nimes 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Saint Etienne and 53% for Nimes. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nimes in 37%; Nimes in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Nimes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Saint Etienne's games and 37% of Nimes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Saint Etienne's matches and 53% of Nimes's.
Do Saint Etienne and Nimes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Nimes in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Nimes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 2, as Saint Etienne and Nimes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.98 xG and Nimes 1.16 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Nimes attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 29% | Draw 33% | Nimes 38%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Nimes 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Nimes's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nimes arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.