Dijon 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Gaston-Gérard to face Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Dijon (all games): 3W 3D 3L across 9 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon have gone 2W 0D 2L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rodez have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.53 in Dijon's favour (1.33 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dijon have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Rodez in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dijon lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 89% and Rodez 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 56% | Rodez 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 2.01 xG and Rodez 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.243 / defence 1.357 | Rodez attack 0.991 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.357. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Dijon games / 43 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 43% | Draw 22% | Rodez 36%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Rodez 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dijon are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dijon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 75% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 43% | Draw 22% | Rodez 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Dijon 2.01 / Rodez 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.243 / def 1.357 | Rodez attack 0.991 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Dijon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Rodez xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Rodez kick off?
Dijon vs Rodez kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Rodez?
Dijon 1 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Dijon vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Rodez part of?
Dijon vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 43% chance of winning, Rodez a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Dijon and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Dijon 2W | Draws 1 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Dijon and Rodez in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dijon's attack at 1.24x the league average against Rodez's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.99x) against Dijon's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
43%
2.34
22%
4.60
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Dijon xG
Total xG
3.83
1.82
Rodez xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
7%
14.52
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Dijon and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Dijon and 1.82 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dijon come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dijon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Rodez — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dijon's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dijon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dijon are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.56 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Rodez in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Rodez have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Rodez away?
Dijon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; Rodez away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dijon have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dijon
1
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Rodez?
From 5 meetings on record, Dijon have won 2, Rodez have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Dijon 1-2 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 75%, Rodez 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dijon and 50% for Rodez. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rodez in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 50% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dijon's matches and 50% of Rodez's.
Do Dijon and Rodez tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rodez in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rodez defy the odds to beat Dijon 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Dijon 1-2 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 2.01 xG and Rodez 1.82 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dijon fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.24 / defence 1.36 against Rodez attack 0.99 / defence 1.22, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 43% | Draw 22% | Rodez 36%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 56%, Rodez 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dijon arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Rodez winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Rodez (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.