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Poisson rates Guingamp at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Guingamp encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Guingamp travel to to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

H2H

The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Guingamp, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Dijon.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Guingamp winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Guingamp have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Standings Snapshot

Guingamp are 11th in Ligue 2 with 40 points from 34 games.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.23 xG and Guingamp 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Guingamp attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 0 Dijon games / 34 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Dijon 32% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 39%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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