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Poisson model favours Reims (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guingamp face Reims.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Reims travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Reims haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reims are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Reims have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 encounters against Guingamp's 3 victories.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Reims winning.

It is worth noting that Reims have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Standings Snapshot

Reims hold the table advantage, sitting 6th with 56 points — 5 positions and 16 points clear of Guingamp in 11th.

Guingamp's home record this season stands at 6W 5D 6L. On the road, Reims's record stands at 5W 9D 3L this term.

Trading Patterns

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Reims in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Reims 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Reims 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.07 xG and Reims 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Reims attack 1.016 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 34 Reims games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 31% | Draw 32% | Reims 38%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Reims 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Reims 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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