Guingamp vs Reims – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Reims (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guingamp face Reims.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Reims travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 23 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have recorded 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Reims have posted 3W 7D 0L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Reims are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 0, Reims 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Reims in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Reims 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 58% | Reims 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.11 xG and Reims 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.050 / defence 1.181 | Reims attack 1.016 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Reims's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Guingamp games / 43 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 26% | Draw 26% | Reims 48%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Reims 2.08. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Reims 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 26% | Draw 26% | Reims 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Guingamp 1.11 / Reims 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.050 / def 1.181 | Reims attack 1.016 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Reims (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Reims xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Reims kick off?
Guingamp vs Reims is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 April 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Reims part of?
Guingamp vs Reims is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 26% chance of winning, Reims a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Guingamp and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Reims?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 1 | Reims 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Reims in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Reims (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.05) and Reims's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
26%
3.82
26%
3.83
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.69
1.58
Reims xG
3.82
26%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
5%
18.52
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.58 for Reims, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 12W 12D 19L from 43 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 6L across 43 games — 1.70 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Reims by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guingamp heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reims's away record stands at 7W 11D 3L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.67 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Reims in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Reims in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Reims have gone 18W 19D 6L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.38 PPG; Reims away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Reims in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Guingamp
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Reims?
From 3 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 0, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Reims 2-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 43%, Reims 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 43% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Reims in 38%; Guingamp have failed to score in 29% of games; Reims in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guingamp's recent matches and 57% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 43% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Reims tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Reims in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.