Dijon vs Annecy Prediction & Preview

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Poisson model rates Annecy at 39%, yet in-form Dijon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dijon vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Dijon host Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Dijon have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Dijon's home record over their last 6 home games: 3W 0D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Annecy — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Annecy have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Dijon have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 67% of Dijon's games and 60% of Annecy's (from Dijon's last 6 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Dijon have won 1, Annecy 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2026, ended Dijon 2–1 Annecy — a Dijon win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Dijon in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Annecy in-play and half-time data (last 12 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 83% and Annecy 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 58% | Annecy 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.53 xG and Annecy 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.080 / defence 1.177 | Annecy attack 1.003 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.319. Data: built from Dijon's last 12 games and Annecy's last 46.

Result probabilities: Dijon 38% | Draw 24% | Annecy 39%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.66 | Draw 4.18 | Annecy 2.59. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dijon (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dijon's last 6 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dijon 67% (last 6 home games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games).

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