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Poisson model favours Annecy (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Annecy face Boulogne.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Boulogne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 March 2027, 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Boulogne have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Boulogne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On current form, Annecy have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

Annecy hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 0 for Boulogne, with 2 draws in between.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Annecy winning.

The historical record gives Annecy a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Table Standings

In the Ligue 2 table, Annecy sit 7th on 52 points, 8 places and 16 points ahead of Boulogne in 15th.

On home turf, Annecy's Ligue 2 record reads 7W 6D 4L this term. Away from home, Boulogne have posted 5W 6D 6L in Ligue 2 this season.

In-Play Profile

Annecy in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Boulogne in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Boulogne 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.31 xG and Boulogne 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.069 / defence 0.926 | Boulogne attack 0.879 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Annecy games / 34 Boulogne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Annecy 41% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 28%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Boulogne 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 70% | Boulogne 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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