Annecy vs Guingamp – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Annecy (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Annecy face Guingamp.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Guingamp make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Annecy (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Annecy's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Guingamp have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Annecy. A 1.50 PPG lead over Guingamp (2.00 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Annecy have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Annecy winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 53% | Guingamp 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.56 xG and Guingamp 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.108 / defence 0.817 | Guingamp attack 0.805 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Annecy games / 38 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Annecy 53% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 18%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 5.56. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Annecy 70% | Guingamp 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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