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Poisson model favours Annecy (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Annecy face Guingamp.

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Analysis

Guingamp make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Form

Annecy (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Annecy's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Guingamp have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Annecy. A 1.00 PPG lead over Guingamp (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Annecy have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Guingamp in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 4W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Annecy winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

League Table

Annecy hold the table advantage, sitting 7th with 52 points — 4 positions and 12 points clear of Guingamp in 11th.

At home this season, Annecy have gone 7W 6D 4L. On the road, Guingamp's record stands at 4W 5D 8L this term.

Trading Data

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Guingamp 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Guingamp 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.54 xG and Guingamp 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.069 / defence 0.926 | Guingamp attack 0.955 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Annecy games / 34 Guingamp games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Annecy 46% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 26%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 3.85. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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