Concarneau 1-3 Laval – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Laval at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Concarneau face Laval.

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Analysis & Preview

Laval travel to Stade Francis-Le Blé to take on Concarneau in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Concarneau have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

Concarneau's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Laval stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Laval have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Concarneau 1.30 PPG, Laval 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Concarneau, 0 for Laval and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Concarneau 3–0 Laval — a Concarneau win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Concarneau in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Laval in-play and half-time data (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Concarneau 32% versus Laval 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Concarneau 40% | Laval 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Concarneau 0.85 xG and Laval 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Concarneau attack 0.874 / defence 1.259 | Laval attack 1.006 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.105. Laval bring a tight defence (rating 0.795, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Concarneau's projected output down. Concarneau's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Laval's projected output up. Data: built from Concarneau's last 25 games and Laval's last 63.

Result probabilities: Concarneau 23% | Draw 27% | Laval 50%. Fair-value odds: Concarneau 4.36 | Draw 3.66 | Laval 2.01. Laval hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Laval offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Concarneau 60% (last 10 home games) | Laval 30% (last 10 away games).

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