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Stalemate at Clermont Foot's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 2, as Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 1.24 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Estac Troyes attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 34%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 37%, Estac Troyes 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights