Clermont Foot 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Clermont Foot at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Gabriel Montpied to take on Clermont Foot. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 August 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Clermont Foot stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stade Gabriel Montpied this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Estac Troyes's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Clermont Foot, 2 for Estac Troyes and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Estac Troyes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 54% versus Estac Troyes 26%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 37% | Estac Troyes 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.914 / defence 1.012 | Estac Troyes attack 1.000 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.226. Data: 35 Clermont Foot games / 35 Estac Troyes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 34%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Estac Troyes 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Clermont Foot dominate the H2H record, yet Estac Troyes are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Estac Troyes (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 60% | Estac Troyes 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 15 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Clermont Foot 1.31 / Estac Troyes 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.914 / def 1.012 | Estac Troyes attack 1.000 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Estac Troyes xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 August 2025 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Clermont Foot 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes part of?
Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 38% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
Record (6 meetings): Clermont Foot 4W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 2W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.91) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.57
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.56
1.24
Estac Troyes xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.24 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Clermont Foot have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 7W 12D 16L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estac Troyes's form line: 14W 5D 16L from 35 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Venue Form
On home soil, Clermont Foot have posted 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (3W 7D 7L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 6W 1D 10L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.09 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 26%.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Estac Troyes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 7W 12D 16L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 14W 5D 16L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Estac Troyes away?
Estac Troyes's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.94 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Clermont Foot
1
Draws
3
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
From 8 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 4, Estac Troyes have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 59%, Estac Troyes 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Clermont Foot) and 53% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 35%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 41% of games; Estac Troyes in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 35% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 53% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Clermont Foot's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 2, as Clermont Foot and Estac Troyes drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.31 xG and Estac Troyes 1.24 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Clermont Foot fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Estac Troyes attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 38% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 34%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 37%, Estac Troyes 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.