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Clermont Foot and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Clermont Foot and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.29 xG and Bastia 1.28 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 1.07 against Bastia attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 35% | Draw 30% | Bastia 35%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 42%, Bastia 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Clermont Foot's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Bastia's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.97 PPG, Bastia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights