🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Boulogne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 30, as Boulogne and Le Mans drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.43 xG and Le Mans 1.99 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Boulogne fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Le Mans landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.95 / defence 1.30 against Le Mans attack 1.34 / defence 1.30, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 26% | Draw 24% | Le Mans 50%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 45%, Le Mans 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Le Mans's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Le Mans arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Le Mans (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights