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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Boulogne cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Amiens.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Boulogne beat Amiens 4-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.09 xG and Amiens 1.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Boulogne beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.86 / defence 1.41 against Amiens attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Boulogne 27% | Draw 29% | Amiens 44%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 52%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Boulogne's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Amiens's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Boulogne 1.11 PPG, Amiens 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights