Le Havre 1-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Le Havre and Dijon meet at Stade Océane in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Le Havre at Stade Océane this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dijon (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dijon have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Le Havre, 1.60 for Dijon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Le Havre, 1 for Dijon and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Dijon 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 31% | Dijon 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.01 xG and Dijon 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.773 / defence 0.759 | Dijon attack 0.994 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.148. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Le Havre's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Le Havre games / 75 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 38% | Draw 32% | Dijon 30%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Dijon 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Havre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.88 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 30% | Dijon 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 38% | Draw 32% | Dijon 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Le Havre 1.01 / Dijon 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.773 / def 0.759 | Dijon attack 0.994 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Dijon xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Dijon kick off?
Le Havre vs Dijon kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Dijon?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Le Havre vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Dijon part of?
Le Havre vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 38% chance of winning, Dijon a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Le Havre and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Dijon?
Record (3 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 1 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Dijon in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Dijon (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.77) and Dijon's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.99x) against Le Havre's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
38%
2.64
32%
3.10
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.88
0.87
Dijon xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
11%
9.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.87 for Dijon, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre come into this having played 75 games, going 32W 26D 17L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.19 PPG from 75 outings (23W 20D 32L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Le Havre's home form reads 16W 12D 9L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 0.92 points per game from 37 outings (8W 10D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.15 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Dijon in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 32W 26D 17L in their last 75 games (1.63 PPG), while Dijon have gone 23W 20D 32L in their last 75 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Dijon away?
Le Havre's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.62 PPG; Dijon away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Dijon in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Dijon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Le Havre 1-0 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Dijon?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 38%, Dijon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Le Havre) and 57% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 32% of games; Dijon in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Le Havre's recent matches and 60% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Le Havre's recent games and 57% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Dijon tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dijon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Dijon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Dijon 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.01 xG and Dijon 0.87 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dijon landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.77 / defence 0.76 against Dijon attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 38% | Draw 32% | Dijon 30%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 31%, Dijon 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dijon's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.