Bastia 2-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Bastia take on Niort.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Niort make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 0L across 7 games at Stade Armand-Césari this term (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari.
Niort's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Bastia, 1.40 for Niort — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 47% versus Niort 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 27% | Niort 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.85 xG and Niort 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.776 / defence 0.869 | Niort attack 0.939 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 0.997. Bastia's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Bastia games / 15 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 34% | Draw 34% | Niort 32%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Niort 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Niort's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 43% | Niort 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 34% | Draw 34% | Niort 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 32% | xG Bastia 0.85 / Niort 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.776 / def 0.869 | Niort attack 0.939 / def 1.222 | league avg home 0.900 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Niort xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Niort kick off?
Bastia vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Niort?
Bastia 2 - 0 Niort.
Where is Bastia vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Niort part of?
Bastia vs Niort is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 34% chance of winning, Niort a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Bastia and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Niort?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Niort in?
Bastia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Niort (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.78x the league average against Niort's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.94x) against Bastia's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
34%
2.90
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.67
0.81
Niort xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
13%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.9 | 15.4 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Bastia and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Bastia and 0.81 for Niort, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 6D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Bastia against 1.40 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 1W 6D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Niort have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.07 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Niort in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Niort in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Niort have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Niort away?
Niort's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.29 PPG; Niort away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Bastia or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Niort in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bastia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 1-4 on 6 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bastia
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Bastia 2-1 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Niort?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 43%, Niort 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Bastia) and 71% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 43% of games; Niort in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bastia's recent matches and 43% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bastia's recent games and 71% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Niort tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Niort in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Niort 2-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.85 xG and Niort 0.81 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Niort landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.78 / defence 0.87 against Niort attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 34% | Draw 34% | Niort 32%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 27%, Niort 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Niort's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.00 PPG, Niort 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.