Niort 2-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Niort vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Niort host Toulouse at Stade René Gaillard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Niort — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Niort, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Niort at Stade René Gaillard this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 home games — 1.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Toulouse have posted 4W 4D 0L from 8 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Niort) versus 1.70 (Toulouse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Niort trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 31% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 44% | Toulouse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 0.91 xG and Toulouse 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.969 / defence 1.294 | Toulouse attack 1.086 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 0.976. Data: 16 Niort games / 16 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 25% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 48%. Fair-value odds: Niort 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 2.08. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Niort 29% | Toulouse 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Monday 6 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 25% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Niort 0.91 / Toulouse 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.969 / def 1.294 | Toulouse attack 1.086 / def 0.991 | league avg home 0.946 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Niort xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Toulouse xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Toulouse kick off?
Niort vs Toulouse kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 6 December 2021 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Toulouse?
Niort 2 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Niort vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Toulouse part of?
Niort vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 25% chance of winning, Toulouse a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Niort and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Niort and Toulouse in?
Niort (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Niort's attack rating (0.97) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
25%
4.02
28%
3.63
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Niort xG
Total xG
2.28
1.37
Toulouse xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.0 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Niort and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Niort and 1.37 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Niort's recent record stands at 6W 3D 7L from 16 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Niort is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 1L across 16 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Niort heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Niort have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 3W 4D 0L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Niort are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.25 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Niort have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Toulouse in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 9W 6D 1L in their last 16 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.43 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Niort or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Toulouse in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Niort
0
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Niort have won 1, Toulouse have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Toulouse 2-0 Niort.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 29%, Toulouse 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Niort and 29% for Toulouse.
On the defensive side: Niort keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Toulouse in 57%; Niort have failed to score in 43% of games; Toulouse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Niort's recent matches and 43% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Niort's recent games and 29% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Toulouse tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Niort defy the odds to beat Toulouse 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Toulouse 2-1 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 0.91 xG and Toulouse 1.37 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Niort beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 0.97 / defence 1.29 against Toulouse attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 25% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 48%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Niort win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 44%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Niort winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Toulouse (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.