Dijon 3-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dijon at 38%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dijon vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Auxerre at Stade Gaston-Gérard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at Stade Gaston-Gérard this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Auxerre — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Dijon's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Dijon trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 47% versus Auxerre 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 40% | Auxerre 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.18 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 0.939 / defence 1.233 | Auxerre attack 0.897 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 0.899 / away 0.976. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Dijon games / 15 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 38% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 33%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Auxerre 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dijon 50% | Auxerre 57%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 38% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Dijon 1.18 / Auxerre 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 0.939 / def 1.233 | Auxerre attack 0.897 / def 1.400 | league avg home 0.899 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Dijon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Auxerre xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Auxerre kick off?
Dijon vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 22 November 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Auxerre?
Dijon 3 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Dijon vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Auxerre part of?
Dijon vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 38% chance of winning, Auxerre a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dijon and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Auxerre in?
Dijon (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dijon's attack at 0.94x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.50
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.26
1.08
Auxerre xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Dijon and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Dijon and 1.08 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 1D 9L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (8W 5D 2L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Dijon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dijon's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 5W 1D 9L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 8W 5D 2L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.43 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Dijon or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Auxerre in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dijon
0
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Auxerre have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2022, when Auxerre 2-1 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 43%, Auxerre 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Dijon) and 57% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Dijon have failed to score in 29% of games; Auxerre in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dijon's recent matches and 57% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Dijon's recent games and 57% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dijon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dijon beat Auxerre 3-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.18 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dijon beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 0.94 / defence 1.23 against Auxerre attack 0.90 / defence 1.40, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 38% | Draw 29% | Auxerre 33%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 40%, Auxerre 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Dijon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.