Bastia 1-2 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Amiens at 36%, yet in-form Bastia provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bastia vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand-Césari plays host to Bastia versus Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 36). Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Bastia have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Amiens (all games): 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Amiens away from home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Bastia's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Amiens's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Bastia, 2 for Amiens and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Bastia 1–2 Amiens — a Amiens win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 42% versus Amiens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 40% | Amiens 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.98 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.897 / defence 1.012 | Amiens attack 0.895 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.139. Data: built from Bastia's last 73 games and Amiens's last 73.
Result probabilities: Bastia 33% | Draw 31% | Amiens 36%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.02 | Draw 3.19 | Amiens 2.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bastia (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bastia's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bastia 20% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 36 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 33% | Draw 31% | Amiens 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Bastia 0.98 / Amiens 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.897 / def 1.012 | Amiens attack 0.895 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Amiens (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Amiens xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Bastia vs Amiens kick off?
Bastia vs Amiens kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Amiens?
Bastia 1 - 2 Amiens.
Where is Bastia vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Amiens part of?
Bastia vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 36) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 33% chance of winning, Amiens a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bastia and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Bastia vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bastia's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.90x) against Bastia's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 73 games and Amiens's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
33%
3.02
31%
3.19
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.02
1.03
Amiens xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Bastia and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Bastia and 1.03 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia come into this having played 73 games, going 30W 17D 26L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.27 PPG from 73 outings (23W 24D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Bastia against 1.27 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bastia's home form reads 19W 8D 9L across their last 36 home games, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 36 away games (10W 12D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.97 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
Bastia (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Bastia vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and Amiens in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 30W 17D 26L in their last 73 games (1.47 PPG), while Amiens have gone 23W 24D 26L in their last 73 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Amiens away?
Bastia's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.81 PPG; Amiens away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Bastia or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Amiens in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bastia and Amiens, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bastia
5
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Amiens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 1, Amiens have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Bastia 1-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 36%, Amiens 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bastia) and 39% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 28% of games; Amiens in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bastia's recent matches and 44% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bastia's recent games and 39% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Bastia's recent matches and 75% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Bastia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Bastia 1-2 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.98 xG and Amiens 1.03 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Amiens outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Amiens attack 0.90 / defence 0.91, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 33% | Draw 31% | Amiens 36%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Amiens 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.47 PPG, Amiens 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 36
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →