Annecy 3-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bastia at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Annecy host Bastia at Parc des Sports in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parc des Sports this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bastia away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.60 PPG versus Bastia's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bastia, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Annecy.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Bastia winning.
It is worth noting that Bastia have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bastia in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 51% | Bastia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.820 / defence 1.076 | Bastia attack 1.081 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Data: 72 Annecy games / 72 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Bastia 44%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Bastia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 40% | Bastia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Bastia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Annecy 0.99 / Bastia 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.820 / def 1.076 | Bastia attack 1.081 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Bastia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bastia xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Bastia kick off?
Annecy vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Annecy 3 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Annecy vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bastia part of?
Annecy vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 28% chance of winning, Bastia a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 0 | Bastia 3W.
What form are Annecy and Bastia in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.82x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
28%
3.64
28%
3.52
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.31
1.32
Bastia xG
3.64
28%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
13.68
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Annecy and 1.32 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy's recent record stands at 21W 21D 30L from 72 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 25L across 72 games — 1.49 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.17 PPG, Bastia on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 13W 10D 13L from 36 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 11W 9D 16L across 36 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Bastia in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 21W 21D 30L in their last 72 games (1.17 PPG), while Bastia have gone 30W 17D 25L in their last 72 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bastia away?
Annecy's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.36 PPG; Bastia away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Bastia runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Annecy go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bastia?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Bastia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 42%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Annecy) and 42% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 36% of games; Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Annecy's recent matches and 47% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Annecy's recent games and 42% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bastia tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bastia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Bastia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Bastia 3-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.99 xG and Bastia 1.32 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Bastia attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Bastia 44%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 51%, Bastia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.17 PPG, Bastia 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.